The United States Supreme Court’s pending review of the federal firearm ban for unlawful drug users presents a deceptively simple question with potentially wide consequences. At issue is whether Congress may prohibit firearm possession by someone classified as an unlawful user of a controlled substance, even when that person is sober at the time of possession.

The short version is this. The constitutional landscape after Bruen has made status-based firearm prohibitions more vulnerable than they were a decade ago. But vulnerability does not automatically mean invalidation.

After examining the Court’s recent Second Amendment decisions, the current judicial philosophy of the justices, and the institutional posture of the Court, the Over Under prediction here is intended to be relatively straightforward.